Samstag, 6. Oktober 2012
b.b. (on sanctions)
Dear friends, said the nerd, let me speak out for once on sanctions: I still don't believe in sanctions. Because the hand that causes pain by sanctions can never be accepted by those people whom you need in order to really overcome the regime: the very strong characters will never just "skip" their national pride. They DO need support from the West. And they need it as real partners. Their strength of opposition is depending on their economic and civil strength. But the more you press an entire state by sanctions, the more the regime you want to fight will concentrate the remnants of national wealth in its own hands, the weaker will the opposition be. If only the martyrs will still oppose their regime, then the outcome is, what we know already: a regime of martyrs. That is no good, friends, it is no good at all.
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I know how people talk. But I am used to thinking in very large periods of time. It is not at all about flirting with the Ayatollas. It is about precision and sustainability in action. Focus on the bomb they might not be able to stop has turned politicians in the West to rabbits in front of a snake. But we are still talking about states and nations and societies. The Iranian society is the FIRST in the Middle East to be fed up with theocracy. It must remain intact against its regime in order to gain strength. The question to Western politics is, HOW can we strengthen the opposition and weaken the regime. How can we further a change that does not create another disfunctional state holding dangerous weapons and a street that turns all its anger against the West and Israel in particular. How can we really partner the democratic forces in the country while helping the Ayatollahs to leave their power. I have no answer. But technical support for the opposition, building contacts with the opposition, taking care of the prisoners and their families - while being very very clear about what will happen if Iran attacks one of its neighbours - might be much more efficient than focusing on a whether or not of bombs. Only that it would demand from our Western politics to accept that we are no longer in asymmetrical wars with terrorists, but in a situation like the cold war between USSR and USA. The threat was mutual, but more calculable than the idea of "us" acting like a world police will ever be. To be sure: This can function only if we make very clear that neither Israel nor the Palestinians can further work as a hostage to both parties. (Let us for once think of Israel as of something comparable to Western Berlin in the times of the cold war). It is only one possible mapping. But I think it would gain us on the long run more respect than the rhetorics and practices we are pursuing now.
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